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LME Review: Profit taking pares gains at end-week

Profit taking and end-of-week book squaring on the London Metal Exchange took the shine off this week's strong gains but funds' renewed attention to metals could spark fresh gains next week, market participants said.

Despite a pullback to $2,627.50 a metric ton Friday, LME aluminium continued to confound expectations, rallying as much as 7.6% this week despite more bearish fundamentals, such as collapsing alumina prices, than copper or zinc, analysts said.

Aluminium's break out above the 100-day moving average triggered positive short-term momentum, leading to accumulation of fresh longs among commodity trade advisory funds while renewed index buying also played a role, Triland Metals Ltd. said in a report.

While bullish technical momentum could produce further gains, fundamentals pointed to the rally stalling soon, analysts said.

"Consumer demand is robust, but this has been the case for a long period now. The slump in alumina prices still has not run its course, so it seems a premature call to assume that negative is now fully priced in," Triland said.

LME copper fell to an intraday low of $7,765/ton, down 3.2%, paring some of this week's gains.

However, attention has shifted to the upcoming labor talks at Codelco in Chile, while workers were due to for a strike vote at Teck Cominco Ltd.'s Highland Valley Copper mine on Sept. 14.

JP Morgan raised metal forecasts based on recent supply disruptions in the copper market that would likely push back an anticipated inventory build-up but maintained an overall bearish view.

Meantime, Goldman Sachs said metal prices had "reversed much of the damage"from the early May sell-off due to favorable supply and demand fundamentals.

LME lead bucked the trend Friday to rise on the day.

"I'm friendly towards lead, given a fall in Chinese exports lately that is likely to continue since domestic prices are trading at a premium to the LME," Bache Financial analyst Angus MacMilland said. Bankruptcy

Seasonal demand in the U.S. was also on the rise, he said.

3 months metal (prices in dollars a ton)
Bid – Ask, Change from Thursday PM kerb

Copper 7815.00-7820.00 Dn 200.00
Lead 1334.00-1335.00 Up 16.00
Zinc 3490.00-3500.00 Dn 165.00
Aluminium 2635.00-2637.00 Dn 34.00
Nickel 27950.00-28000.00 Dn 490.00
Tin 9150.00-9155.00 Dn 75.00

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